U.S. Pacific Command Perspective on Security in Northeast Asia

May 7, 2008

SPEAKER
Admiral Timothy J. Keating, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command

PRESIDER
Micah Fink, Documentary Film Maker, PBS Wide Angle

Admiral Timothy Keating, Commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, shared his reflections on the evolving security environment in Northeast Asia.

The Pacific Command is the oldest and largest of the U.S. unified commands and covers almost half the earth's surface, from the West Coast of the United States to the East Coast of Africa and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, noted documentary filmmaker Micah Fink in his introductory remarks.

Admiral Keating grew up as the son of a naval officer "who beguiled us, as kids, with his tales of the Pacific, so it has been in my blood since my earliest days," he said. This is his second tour of duty with the U.S. Pacific Command; the first was as aide and flag lieutenant to then-Commander-in-Chief Admiral Crowe.

Comparing these tours some 20 years apart, "some contrasts are startling and some similarities are startling," the admiral said. "The strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance is profound. It is important. It is the linchpin of our entire Theater Security Cooperation plan, and I spend as much time as I can in conversation with Japanese officials, principally their chief of defense staff, Saito-san."

"What we are encouraging our Japanese colleagues to do is to expand their view a little bit" in areas such as ballistic missile defense, he said. During a joint exercise several months ago in the Hawaiian Missile Range Facility, Japan launched a surface-to-air missile from the JS Kongo, "an Aegis cruiser manned entirely by Japanese officers, chief petty officers and sailors, and they scored a direct hit on a target flying seven times the speed of sound at 75-some thousand feet. It was a brilliant technological and technical display, and it was Japanese sailors who did it all."

The Pacific Command is also "working closely with members of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force on the very difficult but important command and control of naval vessels and shore-based radar systems."

"In my first visit to Japan I was fortunate enough, a year ago, to meet the then Prime Minister Abe," the admiral continued. "And he raised an interesting point with us, and that involved the nuclear umbrella of the U.S. And it is an issue that comes up not in discussions with Japanese, but with other countries in the region, and it goes to the heart of the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance."

"There are countries who exhibit a little bit of concern about the possibility of Japan's embracing a nuclear policy in the short to mid term, and, again, I emphasize I am absolutely unaware of any such consideration at any level in the Japanese military or the Japanese government. But the U.S. nuclear umbrella was a point that Prime Minister Abe chose to mention to me in our discussions."

Multilateral operations like Malabar, "a week and a half long, very vigorous, technologically challenging and militarily aggressive exercise" conducted in the Bay of Bengal in 2007 with ships from India, the U.S., Singapore, Japan and Australia, would have been "unthinkable" 20 years ago, Admiral Keating said.

"You are certainly aware that there are countries who are not necessarily wild about operating with Japan military forces in the western Pacific and in the southern Pacific. We are encouraging those countries to engage with us in exercises, in personnel exchanges and information sharing on a multilateral basis," for example in Exercise Cobra Gold, which is about to begin in Thailand, he commented.

These activities entail an exchange of information, some of it highly classified and very sensitive, he noted. "The Japanese have a different system for information protection and information sharing, and we find that there are shortcomings in their system. They are anxious to accept some coaching, some nudging, some prodding and some tutoring on information sharing and information protection."

"Another area where we are spending some time with our Japanese colleagues is in working with South Korea," Admiral Keating observed. Japanese and South Korean ships will take part in a Pacific Navy exercise called RIMPAC off the northern coast of Hawaii this summer, and after that exercise is completed, Japanese, South Korean and U.S. Navy ships will work together on personnel exchanges, "something as relatively pedestrian as exchanging cooks or exchanging watch teams on the bridge, so as to start to erode the barriers that undeniably exist between the militaries of South Korea and Japan."

In the 13 months he's served as commander of the Pacific Command, Admiral Keating has visited 25 or 26 of the 40 countries in his area of responsibility, and "there are several elements that have become very clear to me. And one of those, perhaps foremost in all of the countries that we visit, for whatever reason, the U.S. is viewed as the indispensable partner."

Countries such as Indonesia may not want to be seen as an ally of the U.S. and may not want American military forces based on their soil, but partnering with the U.S. has an appeal, he said. Such nations "very much like the notion of being able to reach out and get us when they want us, whether it's Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine, Coast Guard. Not so relevant to them the service. It's the capability, it's the support, it's the training, it's the personnel exchanges that they seek. We're happy to provide that."

Admiral Keating expressed dismay that officials in Burma, or Myanmar, had not yet asked the U.S. for help in coping with the damage wrought by the cyclone on May 3. The U.S. has resources and expertise, indeed has "been ready to respond in a comprehensive manner for a couple of days," but "we can't just send forces into Burma unannounced or uninvited."

The admiral has visited China twice as commander of PACOM, he said, and "the friendships I believe are developing. I have seen some of these senior Chinese military leaders now twice and some even three times in a year, and I'm encouraged generally," though "there's lots of work to be done."

After the second visit, "we tried to get a couple of phone numbers that I could use either to wish them a happy Chinese New Year or to say we've got a problem developing in Burma, could you give us some help--give some assistance in recommending that the Burmese accept offers of assistance; or if a couple of our ships were to run into each other in the South China Sea maybe we could have a conversation now and keep this from developing into another EP3-like incident that occurred a couple of years ago," when an American surveillance plane collided with a Chinese fighter.

For classified-level communications, the hotline between Washington and Beijing is in operation, but "it's not yet where we want to be."

There is concern about China's intentions for its submarines, he indicated. "We can see the Chinese Navy building submarines. They've got 65 of them or so today. A couple of them are nuclear. A couple of their nuclear submarines have intercontinental ballistic missiles, which may or may not have nuclear warheads."

"It's okay to build submarines," he remarked. "There are over 250 of them in the Pacific Command's area of responsibility. No law against building them, no law against putting them out in the middle of the Pacific or the middle of the Indian Ocean. We get a little concerned when we don't understand the intentions of a Chinese submarine that pops up next to a U.S. aircraft carrier" in international waters. "They are allowed to be there. But it's a curious spot to just pop up within five miles of an aircraft carrier conducting flight operations."

"So, it is the intention, it's the reason for the existence of the forces, it's the plan for use of those forces in the future--that's what we need to discuss with our Chinese colleagues," he said.

One avenue that he hopes will lead to further conversations is the development of a corps of senior noncommissioned officers, which the Chinese military currently does not have, he said. "Our senior enlisted advisor in [grade] E-9, Chief Master Sergeant Jim Roy, travels with us every time we go to China, and the Chinese--they look at me and go what are you? We don't recognize this thing on your sleeve. And it takes some explanation to tell them just who this guy is. He's got a master's degree; he's been in the Air Force for 35 years. He's a brilliant guy." There's a certain dilemma in this, deciding whether to show China "how immensely valuable those guys are to us," the admiral admitted. Nonetheless, "we're going to do it."

"Writ large, I'm optimistic--not wildly optimistic, but cautiously optimistic about the developing relations we enjoy with the People's Liberation Army," Admiral Keating concluded. China has many challenges--the environment, energy, education, demographics, poverty, graft and corruption--and "we would like to take the development of a powerful military off of their concern list. It's okay to develop these capabilities, these tactics, techniques and procedures. We would rather they did it with us than in a vacuum. We want to understand their intentions."

***

Mr. Fink began the Q&A:

I was on the Hyuga, the new destroyer, which is capable of carrying helicopters though they don't call it a carrier. The U.S. has been urging Japan to expand its international role since the 1950s. Why is Japan doing so now?

Such an increase in military capability "can provide benefits to us that are not immediately apparent," Admiral Keating said. "A case in point would be relief operations in the event of a cyclone in Bangladesh, a tsunami in Indonesia, a cold snap in China. Now, that's not why you build militaries, to dispense MREs and pass out blankets, but it is a very beneficial second or third-order effect."

Is there an arms race going on in this part of the world?

"I sure hope not, and I don't think it is. It gets to be brutally expensive, it's sometimes counterproductive," and in the end, "without being too bellicose about it, we are going to win," the admiral said.

He added, "I think reasonable development of weapons, reasonable exchanges of personnel and reasonable transfer of ideas and strategies will do a lot to preclude the sense of, much less the actual development of, an arms race."

When I was in Japan there was a great deal of concern about Chinese submarines in Japanese territorial waters, Chinese jets approaching Japanese air space, what was described to me by one American academic as battle boxing reminiscent of the Cold War. How does that appear to you from the American perspective?

"I don't think that's inaccurate," the admiral said. "We share with Japan and South Korea and even as far down as Guam some concerns about Chinese military adventurism, is a term that comes to mind, and we'd just as soon the Chinese didn't do it."

The audience joined in the questions:

At a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee in March, you mentioned that a high-ranking Chinese officer offered to share control of the Pacific, and that he might even have been serious. Have there been further discussions about this within the U.S. government or between Washington and Beijing?

This was a conversation during a visit to the Chinese equivalent of the Naval War College, Admiral Keating explained.

"A two-star, I think, naval officer asked me how would I react if as they develop their aircraft carriers, assuming in his statement that they intend to, if they develop their aircraft carrier fleet, why don't we, the U.S., and they, China, agree to the following: Take the Pacific, cut it in half. You, the U.S., take Hawaii east, you put your carriers and ships there, you stay there. We'll take Hawaii west. We'll put our carriers and ships there. We'll share whatever we get with you, you share whatever you get with us, and we'll save you the time and the trouble.

"I thanked him for his generous offer and assured him that we were very, very unlikely to accept the offer.

"Now, there are a couple of points in his question. And one, he said it with a wry smile on his face. I would assume they are considering aircraft carrier development very seriously. They have purchased an old Russian ski-jump carrier. It's in port. They appear to be refurbishing it. And there are signs that they are practicing certain parts of carrier aviation at fields in inland China.

"I have apprised our officials in the Pentagon and in the National Security Council of that conversation, so it was noted, but there's been no serious discussion since."

In a region with a history of colonialism and a natural suspicion of U.S. power today, how do you reassure some of the nations that we're working with out there that we are not the policemen, nor those who are going to impose any power in the region?

"It's not just the guys in uniforms, guys or girls in uniform, it's ministries of foreign affairs, it's commercial partners and sometimes total strangers, they want us around," Admiral Keating responded. "They do not worry about U.S. hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region."

"Now, some view us as a hedge against China to be sure. Again, that's okay with us. I don't think that transposes in their minds to our looking to be a bigger cop on the beat, or a military power right around the corner."

Do you see a day coming when the Chinese will be part of an exercise like the five-nation exercise in the Bay of Bengal?

"You bet," said Admiral Keating. "We're actually doing more than you probably know." When a U.S. destroyer recently made a port call into Qingdao, a Chinese destroyer steamed alongside and the two ships performed call signal drills. The Chinese have been invited to observe the Cobra Gold and RIMPAC exercises; "they will consider the invitation."

One of the issues is Taiwanese participation--"just the mere invitation renders a no-go for our Chinese colleagues," he added. "We're working hard to overcome that or to kind of find ways around and getting them all at the table at the same time."

A new president is about to be inaugurated in Taiwan, and he's committed to trying to negotiate a peace agreement with the mainland. If China were to withdraw missiles and troops unilaterally from the coast of Fujian, what should the U.S. response be?

"I think our position at Pacific Command, I shouldn't speak for the National Security Council or the president, would be to salute the Chinese for so withdrawing, to commend them for taking a little steam out of the kettle and to recommend to them that those forces could be used in just the kind of exercises as we discussed," the admiral responded.

China just recently sent its first naval vessel to Japan. I think Japan is planning to reciprocate with its first naval visit to China. How does the U.S. look at that?

"Bravo. Hallelujah. We love it," Admiral Keating replied. "Fran Townsend, who is the President's Homeland Security advisor, she coined a phrase, and I think it's very accurate. The U.S., if we're good enough, if we're effective enough, if we're powerful enough, and I use that term powerful cautiously, we can lead from within or even lead next to or perhaps best of all lead from behind."

An example is the Strait of Malacca, where Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines are patrolling to combat piracy, and the U.S. has one plane on patrol and has provided some funding for radar sites along the route, he said. It's become much more secure, and the multilateral efforts aren't led by the U.S., "but we're nearby."

What about organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or a multilateral sortie where the U.S. isn't involved?

"It's very difficult to find reasons to support the conduct of exercises that specifically exclude the U.S. or Australia or whomever. But there are times when you just can't get everybody in the room that wants to be in the room. So, it depends on the situation. We would not necessarily be opposed to them, but we'd sure want to know what's going on," Admiral Keating said.

How much is containment, or to use a less loaded term, perhaps restraining China a part of U.S. strategy right now?

"I am unaware of its being an integral part, or even a minor part, of our strategy," answered the admiral. "It's certainly not part of the Pacific Command's Theater Security Cooperation plan."

--Katherine Hyde